Will the Mets finish in last place in the NL East?

The New York Mets are currently 53-61, a .465 winning percentage.  They’ve dropped seven of their last 10 and 10 of their last 14.

The team currently last in the NL East, the Washington Nationals, are 40-74, a .351 winning percentage.  But they’re won eight of their last 10 games.

So with the basic Excel skills I know, I wanted to see if the Mets could end up in last place in 2009. 

Answer: It’s possible (maybe if the season never ended).

Here’s the two teams winning percentages on a graph, with an average trendline.  (Basic trendline rules: trendline going up = winning more games of late, trendline going down = winning less games as of late.)As you can see, the Nationals have been winning more games lately, while the Mets have not.

Taking a very rudimentary approach to extrapolating this out, I turned to Photoshop and traced the trendlines out, so you could see what would eventually happen if both teams stay on their respective paths.Eventually, if the season lasted forever, the Nationals would overtake the Mets if each team kept playing (read: winning and losing) at their current pace.

I’m not sure if this is possible in the games left for the 2009 season, but if they just kept playing baseball until next March, it would happen.

The Mets can stay out of the basement with a few more wins here or there, but if they don’t veer off their current path, the Nationals may have a change to leap-frog them into fourth place.

Scary, isn’t it?

Welcome to third place in the worst division in baseball

 Welcome to a sub-.500 and third place, Mets fans.

Both the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets are 3-7 over their last 10 games.  The puts the Florida Marlins in the “surging” category, as they have won six of their last 10.

With a .534 winning percentage, the Phillies are the “worst” team to be leading a division.  The Washington Nationals, undoubtedly the worse team in the game, has a putrid 22-52 record, good for a .297 winning percentage.

The combined records of all five teams is 172-203.  That is a .458 winning percentage.

All this keeps me believing that the Mets actually have shot at the NL East title.  And I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.

Wild Card only

The Phillies were able to stave off the Washington Nationals and clinched the 2008 NL East title.

Congrats to them.

Right now, the Cubs are leading the Brewers 6-3, and are threatening for more. (Thank you, Kosuke Fukudome!) If this game ends as is, it will all come down to tomorrow.

Go Cubs!

Update: Cubbies win, 7-3.

Brewers and Mets are tied atop the Wild Card standings.

Well, tomorrow will be fun.

Wishful thinking

I know the Mets are far from clinching a playoff spot, but the current playoff scenario has got me thinking and scheming.

My dream scenario:
Mets win the four of the next six, win NL East.
Phillies collapse, and go 1-5.
Brewers keep winning, and take the Wild Card.

Mets win the East, Brewers take the Wild Card, and the Phillies hit the golf course.

So many things would have to go right for this to happen, but it would be amazing to see this happen.

Plus, the Mets have played the Brewers very well this season, to the tune of a 4-2 record, including a three game sweep in Milwaukee at the beginning of August.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for this scenario to play out, but I'd just be happy with seeing the Mets make the playoffs.

Edit: I completely goofed on this article. Commenter, and friend, Buzz lays it out perfectly:

Actually the Mets and Brewers have 5 more games, the Phillies have four. This would get you your dream:
Mets: 3-2
Phillies: 1-3
Brewers: 4-1
(Or Mets 4-1, Phils 2-2 and Brewers 5-0).

Under that scenario, the three teams finished tied at 90-72 (or 91-71). The Mets win the East because they have the tiebreaker over the Phils (season series). So, the Phils have to play the Brewers for the Wild Card. Brewers win the extra game, Phils are gone

Thanks, Buzz!

Edit #2: Buzz has his sleuthing shoes on today. We were both wrong, but he clarifies with this second comment:

Looks like I'm not 100% correct either here -- according to the news articles on Mets.com, if this scenario occurs there would be a two game playoff -- the Mets would travel to Philly to play for the division and then the Brewers would then travel to the loser to play for the WC. I know this used to be different, but they must have changed it.

Here's the link: http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=...

And the quote from the end of the article:
"Should three clubs finish the season with the same winning percentage, one as a division winner and the other as a Wild Card, playoff games would be played as follows:

• The two teams tied for the division lead play the one-game tiebreaker, with the winner being declared the division champion.

• The losing team in that game then plays the club from the other division for the Wild Card."

I guess this whole thing playing out the way I want would take a lot more than just winning a few games. But hey, you never know.

Again, thanks Buzz!

If the Mets make the playoffs, will you be happy?

For me, yes. But it will be so bittersweet.

It looks as if the NL East is slipping away quickly. That leaves the Mets to contend for the Wild Card. A two team tango begins tonight, with the Mets and Brewers each having six games to play to finish out the regular season.

The Mets have a one game lead heading into tonight, with three more against the Cubs, and another three against the recently eliminated Marlins. The Brewers play three against the Pirates, starting tonight, and another three against the Cubs.

I still think the Mets can back into the playoffs. The Brewers have dominated the Pirates this year, and will look to win their 10th game in a row over the lowly Bucs. CC Sabathia was a blown call away from a no-hitter last time he faced Pittsburgh.

The Mets need the Pirates to play spoiler, and this would be the perfect team to do it. They've been held down long, so the Brewers might get a little complacent playing them. If they can come out strong and put up a fight, it might be enough to break the young Brewer team, especially with a new manager at the helm.

Even with a one game lead, the Mets shouldn't even worry about the Brewers, they have enough problems of their own. The Mets can't seem to get enough pitching together to get through nine innings of baseball, and can't seem to buy a win.

What the Mets need to do, for maybe the one millionth time I've written it on this blog, is win. Just win.

If they win, it won't matter what the Brewers do.

A strange case, something I am half-wishing for, is a one game playoff at Shea Stadium. That would only happen if the Mets and Brewers are tied at the of the regular season. Since the Mets won a coin-flip last week, the game would be hosted at Shea.

Could you even begin to imagine how crazy Shea would be that day?

If the Mets get to that point, and I half hope they do, and if they can pull off a win, it might be just the sort of momentum they need to roll into the playoffs.

Wishful thinking, I guess. The Mets still have to get to that point.

Dear Brewers...

A letter sent from the Mets to the Brewers.

Dear Brewers,

The Wild Card is yours for the taking.

We're going to roll over and die during the last week of the season again, so feel free to snatch it up if you really want it.

Enjoy October baseball!

Sincerely,
The Mets

Would Lou Pinella actually do this?

Knowing him, it's entirely possible.

Jeff Passan throws out a scenario that would be absolutely crazy for anyone else but Lou Pinella.

Were Lou Piniella the scheming type – and, well, he’s been around long enough, in the game and in Chicago, to understand that a little bit of maneuvering is encouraged – he could influence the entire NL playoff scene. If the Cubs prefer playing the Phillies, Piniella could cobble together a lineup of Micah Hoffpauir, Casey McGehee, Koyie Hill, Daryle Ward and others for the four-game series against the Mets starting Monday, then end the regular season against Milwaukee with his regular lineup. Mets win the division; Phillies get the wild card; Brewers out. Or they may prefer the Mets to the Phillies.

I honestly wounld not put that past old Lou. But knowing the Mets, they'd still lose to a bunch of September call-ups and really screw things up.

As plausible as it is, I can't see Pinella trotting out a team of young guys. Maybe a mix and match, resting some of his key players for the playoffs by giving them a day or two off, but not much more than that.

You never know, though. All the Mets need to do is win. Win, and they control their own destiny. It's a simple concept, but they still haven't been able to grasp it.

As I said last night, the Mets had an awful day yesterday, and slipped in both the NL East and Wild Card standings. Tonight, we are all Braves fans, as the Phillies kick off a three game series at home. The Brewers have today off, but tomorrow we all should be rooting for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Go Braves. Go Pirates. Go Mets.

A terrible day for the Mets

Bad timing, Mets.

Mets lose 7-6.
Phillies win 5-2.
Brewers win 8-1.

That puts the Mets 1.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East and their lead shrinks to 1.5 over the Brewers in the Wild Card.

This will be the week that the Mets prove themselves, or fall into obscurity (and the answer to another bad trivia question). The Cubbies come into Shea, a team that if they do make the postseason, they may have to play in either the first or the second round, depending.

If the Mets can beat the Cubs, it will not only vault them into the postseason, it will show the players and the fans that they are capable of beating a playoff caliber team.

Big week, without a doubt. Jason Marquis, Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, and Ted Lilly. Four excellent pitchers who have combined to go 50-26 on the season. Realistically, I'd hope for a split. A sweep is simply out of the question, with the Mets unable to beat up, or even win series over lowly teams.

Should be fun, if not frustrating.

Welcome back to first place, Mets

Now stay there.

The Wild Card doesn't seem like a good fit for the Mets

If the season ended today, the Mets would play the Chicago Cubs. Looking back to the beginning of the year, that wouldn't be a very good thing.

The Mets played the Cubbies twice, for one of those weird two game series on April 21 and 22nd.

Both of those games saw the Mets only score one run, losing 7-1 against Carlos Zambrano and 8-1 against Ted Lilly.

The way these two have been pitching, with Zambo throwing a no-hitter against the Astros last time out, and Lilly taking a no-hit bid into the seventh inning the next day, and the way the Mets offense has been hitting, I wouldn't be surprised if another no-hitter is in the stars.

The Mets have been making the Nationals starters look like Cy Young. John Lannan? One hit. Odalis Perez? Four hits. Shairon Martis? We'll see.

Chicago comes to Shea during the last week of the season, for a four game series September 22 - 25. It's the second to last regular season series at the old park, so hopefully the Mets can do something special.

If they can, they just might be able to get October baseball into the old park one more time.

I never thought I'd say this...

But...

GO BRAVES!

The Phillies and the Braves begin a three game series tonight in Atlanta, with the Phillies only a 1/2 game behind the Mets with two weeks to go.

Seriously, go Braves!

It'd be great to see Atlanta take two of three here, and maybe the Mets can figure out how to beat the Nationals in September, which seems to be the toughest thing to do for this franchise of late.

The Mets can't worry about anyone else but themselves. If they win, then everything else doesn't matter. So Mets, just win, and don't scoreboard watch. Learn to tack on runs to a lead, hit in clutch situations, and above all else, if someone who enjoys striking out opposing batters would please raise their hand, that would be really helpful.

GO BRAVES!

I need a shower now. I feel dirty.

Thanks a lot, Phillies

Never thought I'd write that headline.

The Brewers have fired their manager Ned Yost, after getting swept by the Phillies and losing seven of eight.

With the Mets struggling a bit, and the Phillies getting hot atop the Wild Card, this might be just what the teams from the NL East need.

The Phillies and Brewers are tied atop the WC standings, so as the Brewers vault into the unknown, with their third base coach taking over, this may open up some space for two NL East teams to get into the postseason.

I still think the Mets will win the division, but this may turn out to be a nice safety net, somewhat thanks to the Phillies dominance.

Here come the Phillies

Objects in mirror may be closer than they appear.

In September, the Mets are 7-4. The Phillies are 8-5. Over their last ten games, the Mets have won six, while the Phillies have won seven.

One would think that the Mets have been staving off the Phillies, and maintaining their lead. Not so. In fact, the Mets have seen their lead shrink from as large at 3.5 games, down to one, where it sits right now.

The Mets have 14 games to play in 14 days. The Phillies play 12 games in that same time span.

I hate to say it, but here come the Phillies...again. You can't deny the similarities between this year and last. Sure, there are a few different variables, but it's playing out like a broken record.

Scary to think, and I obviously still have hope (they are in first place), but it's getting a little nerve wracking.

This is going to be a crazy two weeks. Every game is precious. They are all "must wins" from here on out.

A sweep would do wonders

The Mets will welcome the Braves for their final series in Shea, and a sweep would be wonderful.

If the team from New York can take both games today, then a win tomorrow would just be a bonus. It's tough to win two games on the same day, especially with a pitcher making his second start in the big leagues pitching in the night cap.

If the Mets can manage to take all three games, their magic number can be lowered to 11. If the Phillies lose any games, that number will dip even lower. The Mets don't have an off day between now and the end of the season, and if they are going to make the playoffs, it look entirely plausible that they will clinch at home.

Say they take two of three this series, their MN will dip from 14 to 12. Say the Phillies drop two to the Brewers, the number will be at 10 by Monday morning. The Mets then go on a seven game road trip, starting in Washington for a four game set, and then to Turner Field for three.

Let's err on the side of caution, and say the Mets win only four. The number drops to six. Say the Phillies win four over that same span. The number slips down to four, and it's September 22nd.

The Mets finish the season with seven in a row at home, facing the Cubs for four and the Marlins (again?!) for three to bring an end to the regular season. If all goes according to my plan, the Mets MN is four with the rest of their games at home. Seems logical, no?

The Mets lost a coin-flip to the Phillies, and any possible tie breaker will take place in Philly. So hopefully the Mets can get it done, and if they do get it done, they do it at home. Obviously, beggars can't be choosers and clinching is clinching, I don't care where they do it. I'd prefer it at home, but my heart won't be broken if they do it in Atlanta.

As it stands, all the Mets need to do is win. Simple as that. Easy on paper, a little harder to pull off, but the way this team is playing I think it's plausible and possible.

Mets chances of making the playoffs: 60.2%

According to Jeff Passan at the bottom of his Playoff Pulse column, the Mets are third in the National League in playoff chances percentages.

Passan cites AccuScore, who ran a simulation of the rest of the '08 season 10,000 times, and came up with these numbers for the NL:

Chicago Cubs: 98.3
Milwaukee Brewers: 69.5
New York Mets: 60.2
Arizona Diamondbacks: 51.5
Los Angeles Dodgers: 49.3
St. Louis Cardinals: 24.6
Philadelphia Phillies: 24.2
Florida Marlins: 20.4

Hmm...this stinks of "jinx." Five bucks says the Cubbies and Mets falter?

Anyway, I hate looking at these things, because all they do is get my hopes up.

Mets sit alone atop NL East (I called it.)

"With the Mets playing the Nationals, and the Phillies playing the Dodgers, it's entirely possible the Mets could be back in first place by the end of the week."
-Me, on Wednesday.

"I'm calling it now: The Mets will stand alone in first place by tomorrow morning."
-Me, on Thursday.

Well...

Give me a few, I have to go play the lottery...

Welcome back to first place, Mets

And here we are again.

Despite all the bullpen troubles, the Mets have pulled back within a tie for first place with the Philadelphia Phillies. Much thanks to Nomar Garciaparra for hitting a bottom of the 9th inning walk-off home run last night to beat the Phillies.

With all the issues and griping, one would expect this team to be 15 games out and severely incapable of winning games, yet here they are in first place in the middle of August. All the whining I hear from Mets fans, if you didn't know what team they were rooting for, you would think we were all Devil Rays Nationals fans.

This team has a definite shot at making another run. A few key players are getting very hot (Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and even Daniel Murphy) and the team showed no flaws in last nights 12-0 romp of Washington.

The bullpen obviously need work, but Billy Wagner should be back by Monday, for better or worse. Just the mental aspect of having him in the bullpen will help the team and the rest of the relief corp.

I'm calling it now: The Mets will stand alone in first place by tomorrow morning.

Mets could reclaim first by Friday

The Mets are sitting only one game behind the Phillies, even though their bullpen troubles make it seem like they're 20 games back.

With the Mets playing the Nationals, and the Phillies playing the Dodgers, it's entirely possible the Mets could be back in first place by the end of the week. It mostly depends on how well John Maine can bounce back from his stint on the DL.

On Friday, both the Mets and the Phillies square off against sub-500 teams. The Mets take on Pittsburgh, a team who handed them a come from behind loss on Monday, while the Phillies take on San Diego.

Right here, right now, I'm going to call that first place in the NL East will change hands at least 3 more times before the year is over.

I'll take it

On Friday, I wrote that this series against the Marlins was big. The Mets took two of three, faltering in the final game. I'll take it.

The Mets jumped into second place, and are only two games back of the Phillies. These two teams will meet five more times before the season is over, twice in Philly and three more times back at Shea.

Looking at the schedule, the Mets will play the Nationals and the Braves a combined 18 times, and the Marlins another six times, again finishing out their regular season against the Marlins at home. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of last year.

That's a total of 29 more games against the NL East. If the Mets can go 18-11 during those games, I'll be a happy man. I'll even take 16-13.

A good series for the Mets. Wished they could have swept, but it was good enough.

Early Morning Madness: Jon Niese's performance makes last night bareable edition

Jon Niese's first start with AAA New Orleans: 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 7 strike outs, 96 pitches, 65 for strikes.

Now that is quality. Depending on how Pedro Martinez does against the Astros on Friday and beyond and how Carlos Muniz or Joe Smith fares in the bullpen over the next few weeks, I am absolutely convinced we will see Niese making a few appearances for the Mets in the near future.

The 21 year old continues to impress, as he was recently promoted to AAA. A few more starts like these, and he'll be up in no time.

** * **

A 0.5 game out at the end of July. If you had told me that's where the Mets would be two months ago, I would have scoffed at you, called you crazy, and called up a mental institution. Now, I would be asking what tomorrow's lottery numbers will be.

I will take it. The Mets, Phillies, and Marlins are all in contention, and it's going to be a very exciting two months of baseball. With the way the NL Centra is playing, it looks like if one of these teams wants to make it to the postseason, they're going to have to win the division. No fallback to the wildcard for the NL East.

If Ryan Church could return to form, the Mets will be in great shape. The bullpen has struggled lately, but I'd rather them sift through their troubles now than in late September. It's going to be a dogfight.