Garland to sunny San Diego

Free agent Jon Garland will sign a one-year, $4.75 million contract with the San Diego Padres.

Most reports pointed to the Mets not showing much interest in Garland, so to them it might not be a big deal.  But it’s just one less pitcher, something pretty much everyone believes they need, off the market.

Twitter Poll: Which free-agent starters would you like to see on the Mets?

With the starting pitchers flying off the shelves, the Mets are now left with a few injury-prone players and some that just aren’t very good.

I asked my Twitter followers which starter they would like to see on the Mets come 2010.  Here are some responses…

dtmfr: Ben Sheets, because he's got the highest reward (provided he stays healthy)

TheRealHoov: Jon Garland....he may not be glossy, but he's consistent and an innings eater

thesolomind: Wang

NYSportzNut: Sheets hands down - only starter available that has the upside to make the Mets a playoff contender.

Do you agree with these selections?  Who would you sign if you were GM?

Zeno's Paradox: Signing Oliver Perez

If you're unfamiliar with Zeno's Paradoxes, one of them states that, "Before a moving object can travel a certain distance, it must travel half that distance. Before it can travel half the distance it must travel 1/4 the distance, etc. This sequence goes on forever."

That's how it seems the Mets are progressing with Oliver Perez.

Every time I hear a rumor, the Mets are "getting closer" or are "a bit closer" or "almost there."

With the market thinning, now with Jon Garland and Andy Pettitte off the market, it leaves really only Perez and Ben Sheets as viable options for the Mets.

They need a No. 2 or 3 starter, and though neither are a perfect fit, the Mets cannot enter the season and expect their current rotation to compete.

More Jon Garland and the Mets rumors

A-ha! Someone seems to be listening.

Peter Botte in the Daily News:

The Mets have maintained regular contact with the representatives for free agents Randy Wolf and Jon Garland as fallback options if they don't retain Perez.

Get one of them and either Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets, and I will be a very happy Mets fan.

Sign Jon Garland, please

I present you with the best fact I've found on why the Mets should sign Jon Garland. He may not be a spectacular pitcher, but this Stat of the Day shows why he's so durable and enticing.

Stat of the Day:

Today, I was wondering, from 2002 through 2008, how many big league pitchers younger than age 29 have posted four or more seasons where they made at least 32 starts, threw at least 190 innings, and won at least 10 games?

Here is the list.

Look who is at the top.

Beltran for Dice-K and Ellsbury?

From Joel Sherman's Hardball Blog:

Let me ask Met fans, Red Sox fans and anybody else interested if you would be willing to do this trade: [Carlos] Beltran to Boston for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jacoby Ellsbury?

In a word: No.

Beltran's 2008: .284/.376/.500, 40 2B, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB. Played in 161 games.
Ellsbury's 2008: .280/.296/.394, 22 2B, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 50 SB. Played in 145 games.

Yes, Ellsbury is a great fielder and sometimes Beltran makes a silly mistake in the field, but there is no comparing the two. Three straight Gold Gloves for Beltran is enough information here.

Ellsbury is six years younger and much cheaper, which is enticing, but there is just no replacing Beltran in the field. Easily one of the most embattled players on the team, with some fans loving every second of him and others thinking he is overpaid. You likely know where I lie.

Dice-K would be nice, no doubt. He'd fit in right behind Johan Santana and be an excellent #2 pitcher. But with the staff they have right now, I don't think the Mets need to give up a guy as valuable as Beltran to land a #2 pitcher. Rather, they need to focus on getting a solid 3/4 guy in the rotation. Mike Pelfrey will have a decent year, but won't match 2008. Hopefully, John Maine can come back and pitch effectively.

The team knows they need to spend here, and they've already made the intial offer to Derek Lowe. It came out to be a little low, but the market seems thin for him, so the Mets might catch a break here and get him for near what they want to pay. That's their best option right now, with Oliver Perez filing in behind him.

I still don't know where the Jon Garland talk is. He's a solid back-end of the rotation guy, and has proven himself and his nearly automatic 4.75 ERA (fixed) for years. Sign him for the 4th or 5th guy and move from there. It would put pressure on the rest of the pitching market to look to the Mets if they seriously consider them suitors.

But back to the trade, I'll pass.

Mets eyeing Redding and Wolf as Plan B

I've suggested both the players over the last few days, and it seems the Mets agree. Randy Wolf and Tim Redding are both on the Mets radar, but rank in behind Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe on the team's wish list.

According to Marty Noble, Wolf is the better option, and he evens goes as far as to liken Redding to Jose Lima.

Inking Redding would more [sic] consistent with the Mets' signing of Jose Lima in 2006. Redding would serve as a No. 5 starter or in reserve. If he were to sign, the impressions Jon Niese would make in Spring Training -- not his ERA and record, but the Mets' sense of his readiness -- might determine Redding's immediate future.

Lima? Really? Redding isn't that bad.

But, this is exactly what I've wanted the Mets to do -- sign a #5-at-best, AAAA type starter to push Niese through spring training.

The Mets should just go ahead and sign Wolf now. I still fail to see why Jon Garland is not talked about as an option, though.

Noble also notes the Mets "anticipate a lull" in roster moves over the coming weeks, especially since three of their most wanted players are all represented by Scott Boras, who has bigger fish to fry right now.

Could the Mets make a play for Andy Pettitte?

Andy Pettitte is a free agent who we all know can handle pitching in New York. Could the Mets be making a play for the longtime Yankee?

According to Jon Heyman, an unnamed team supposedly has a three-year, $36 million offer on the table for Pettitte.

Hopefully, that team is not the Mets.

I would take Pettitte on a one year contract worth $8 million, though he likely won't sign for that. How about a two year deal worth $14 million? It's a bit off from this suggested $12 million a year he's supposedly getting from Team Anonymous (which I suspect doesn't exist). Pettitte also supposedly turned down a one-year, $10 million offer from the Yankees.

Last year, he was on the mound for 204 innings. The three years before that he threw 215.3, 214.3 and 222.3 innings respectively. Don't expect his ERA to dip below 4.00, the last time that happened was in 2005 with Houston when he put up a spectacular 2.39 for the year.

The Mets need at least one more starter, and it could be Pettitte. Again, Jon Garland is still higher on my list, especially because he's seven years Pettitte's junior. I'm not sure if I could deal with that creepy stare Pettitte always has while pitching.Yeah, that's the one.

Still trying to make Marquis a Met

Omar Minaya will not rest, will not sleep for an instant until the 2009 Mets are ready to go.

Jon Heyman continue to bring up Jason Marquis to the Mets.

Marquis, a Staten Island native, would fill a need in the Mets' rotation at a reasonable cost. The Cubs are offering to pay some of Marquis' $9.5-million 2009 salary to defray the cost. The Mets could also consider sending reliever Scott Schoeneweis to the Cubs to further offset Marquis' salary.

For a second, I got very, very excited that the Mets were sending Schoeneweis for Marquis straight up. Darn.

I'm not quite sure what else the Cubbies need, outside of bullpen help. They might need a right-handed bat in the outfield, but I'm not quite sure the Mets have enough righties on their team as it is.

I'd like to see Marquis, as he'd be a solid #5 starter. Don't forget about Jon Garland, Minaya!

What's next for the Mets?

With Francisco Rodriguez in the fold, Omar Minaya has cleared the first hurdle this off-season. The next question is, what does he do next?

I would hope that his next signing or transaction would be for a starting pitcher. I'm more worried about the two gaping holes at the back of the Mets rotation as opposed to who is manning left field when we already have people that can do a semi-decent job out there.

Everyone keeps talking about Jon Garland being a fallback plan for the Mets. Why? He's not going to be the ace of your staff, so you can live with his ERA over 4.00 every year. Plus, he eats innings, logging 190 IP or more every year since 2002. The Mets may need to pay him a little more than they wish, but they can. Garland is actually near the top of my wish list for starting pitchers for the team to acquire.

Minaya seems infatuated with Raul Ibanez, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the next New York Met. I don't necesarily hate Ibanez, but in no way would I get excited about him playing in left next year. Yes, that would move Fernando Tatis back to the bench, but that would also force Daniel Murphy either to the bench as well, or back to the minors where he can at least get regular playing time.

The Mets continue to pursue Huston Street, though it seems that Aaron Heilman may not be included in a possible deal for the ex-A's closer. The team wants a set-up man who can also fill in at closer if need be. Street would be an excellent addition to the team, but it's unknown what the Mets would have to give up.

They had offered Heilman and Pedro Feliciano, but when the Rockies called back, Minaya had changed his mind. The Rox just signed lefty Alan Embree, so their need for Feliciano is probably diminished.

Back to the starting pitching market, I keep hearing conflicting reports about Derek Lowe. First the team is courting him, then he's too expensive and then back to "the Mets are considering Lowe." I think he's too expensive for the type of pitcher he is, and looking at what the Mets need, he may not be the best option.

Ken Davidoff believes the Mets should sign Oliver Perez. I wouldn't mind that. We know what he's capable of, but Scott Boras is going to demand the bank and more for his client and I think the Mets are unwilling to pay that much for the inconsistency of Perez.

Pedro Martinez's name continues to be brought up, but as I wrote last night, I believe the team is attempting to drum up buzz about it as an act of good faith.

Oh, and don't count on Manny Ramirez coming to the Mets, as I hinted at in Minaya's notebook. I give it about a 2 percent chance of happening.

Mets Rumor: Jon Garland

This is the the kind of pitcher the Mets need to focus on. Solid, durable and effective. Not a top tier starter, but someone who will fit nicely at the back of their rotation.

Per Ken Rosenthal (I wonder how many times I will write his name over the next two weeks...):

Right-hander Jon Garland, who declined arbitration from the Angels, is on the Mets' radar. The Mets are unlikely to pay top dollar for a starter after investing in a closer, and Garland would fit the back of their rotation. Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese are the Mets' current projected starters. Garland, 29, has averaged 205 innings over the past seven seasons and likely would benefit from a move to the National League.

Perfect. If the Mets can manage to land Garland, I will feel much better about guys like Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell competing for that final spot(s) in the rotation.

If not, they must go out and sign someone else instead of handing two-fifths of the rotation to unproven rookies. Garland is high on my Mets fan wish list for this off-season.

In honor of the Winter Meetings being held in Las Vegas

I figured I'd put a little casino themed photo together.From top left, going clockwise: Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Raul Ibanez, Derek Lowe, Jon Garland, Huston Street, Orlando Hudson, Nick Punto and Francisco Rodriguez.

Also: Check out this strangely appropriate Photoshop from a few months ago (two months to the day, exactly!).

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Prepare for news overload. Tune in here, as I will work as the filter between you and all the ridiculous news. If it's worthwhile, you'll read it here. If it's just rumors for the heck of rumors, I'll be sure you won't be bothered with it.