Johan Santana gets no run support, no run support at all

Johan Santana and the Mets are set to face off against Derek Lowe and the Braves tonight in what will likely be another pitching duel.

So far in 2009, Santana seems to be the one pitcher suffering from lack of run support.  In his six starts, the Mets have scored 12 combined runs.  In the game after a Santana start, the Mets have scored 38 combined runs.

Take a look at this chart that plots the runs scored before a Santana start, on the day Santana starts and the day after.

To put that even more in perspective, here’s a graph of runs scored for each starting pitcher.  In only two (2!) games have the Mets scored less than four runs – the most they’ve ever scored in a Santana start – for another pitcher.

This is mostly due to the fact that of Santana’s six starts, he’s been matched up against the ace of the opposing team’s rotation (Aaron Harang on Opening Day and Josh Johnson twice).  Two other times, he’s pitched opposite the No. 2 starter in the rotation.

With Santana facing off against Lowe tonight, the No. 1 pitcher in the Braves staff, it might be another low scoring night.  Lowe is 1-2 with a 8.78 ERA in two starts and eight total appearances against the Mets.

Santana, on the other hand, is 0-3 in five career starts against the Braves.  His ERA? 2.76.  Lack of run support is a running theme, it seems.

Hopefully his fortunes will change tonight at Citi Field.

The State of the Mets -- 1/15/09

Here is the second edition of The State of the Mets.

I cover Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez and Alex Cora.

Enjoy.

(Ed. note: I'm slowly improving this. Soon, you won't have to stare at my ugly mug the whole time.)

Braves sign Derek Lowe

According to Braves Blast and the AJC, the Atlanta Braves and Derek Lowe have agreed to a four-year, $60 million deal.

Lowe still needs to pass a physical, but that will likely happen within the next few days.

OK, Mets fans, Lowe is off the table. Time for Omar Minaya to focus all his efforts on Oliver Perez (or Ben Sheets!). No chance that Minaya signs Perez for only three-years, $30 million as reported. He's going to command a lot more than that.

As I said before, I think the offer has to be for five years even to get Perez to the table. If Lowe is going to get $15 million a year, there is no reason that Perez can't get the same.

Lowe, Braves seriously talking

From Jon Heyman:

The Braves are trying hard to finalize a deal that would solidify their rotation. The deal for Lowe is believed to be for close to $60 million over four years.

For that much, you can have him Atlanta.

I would have been OK with three-years, $45 million or four-years, $50 million. But four-years, $60 million is a little rich for my taste.

The Mets need a left-handed starter

The Mets are sorely lacking southpaws on their pitching staff.

As the depth chart stands right now (sans Tim Redding), the Mets only have three lefties between their rotation and the bullpen. Johan Santana and Jon Niese on the starting staff and only Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen comprise the lefties on the team.

To be successful, the Mets need to sign or trade for some more.

The team has focused on two free agent starters to fill the void in the rotation. Derek Lowe, a righty, and Oliver Perez, a lefty, seem to be atop the Mets wish list, in that order. With Redding now a New York Met, and likely becoming the fifth man in the rotation (or at the least the long man and spot starter), should the Mets look to Perez first and Lowe second?

Friend and fellow blogger Josh Levitt brings up this point on his blog Jorge Says No!:

I think that Omar Minaya should back off his pursuit of Derek Lowe. With rumors swirling that the Braves are going all in on Lowe, now would be a good time for the Mets to step aside and focus their efforts on Oliver Perez, who is only 27 and great against lefties. Lowe would be a wonderful addition to the Mets rotation, but at this point I'm skeptical about giving him a fourth year or another $10-$15 million more than the Mets original offer (3 years/$36 million).

Levitt absolutely hits the nail on the head here.

Though I'd love Lowe on the Mets, I think the smarter play here if for Perez, at least given their current situation. Perez has shown his ability to win in big games (even if he couples that with loses against sub-.500 teams) and would provide the Mets with another lefty arm on the staff.

With guys like Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley all batting left handed, the Mets need another southpaw. (Yes, I realize these are all Phillies, but the rest of the teams in the NL East don't really have any feared left-handed hitters. Plus, these are three of the biggest boppers the Mets will face in any division, so it just makes sense.)

The Mets should shift focus to signing Perez. Lowe would be nice, but Perez seems like the better fit right now.

Mets still confident

Ken Davidoff:

The Mets remain confident that they'll eventually land one of their top two choices to upgrade the starting rotation - either Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez.

He then goes on to look around baseball for teams that were searching for starters this year, and brings up quotes and signings that show the market for these two isn't very good.

Still, I'm yet to hear any Ben Sheets rumors for the Mets. Obviously, no team would sign this guy long term, due to his knack for getting hurt, but a two-year deal may make sense for a few, the Mets being one of them.

When Sheets is healthy, he's a top-notch pitcher, but that is a big "if." Still, a two-year deal, worth, say $8 million per year. He made $11 in 2007, but his injuries should limit the amount of money he gets paid.

Lowe, Perez and Sheets are still on the market, and the Mets absolutely need another starting pitcher. As of right now, Lowe is far and away the most popular choice in the current poll, garnering 43 percent of the overall votes. Sheets is in second with 25 percent and Perez has picked up 18 percent.

I'll take any of them.

Braves emerge as suitors for Lowe

After catching the short end of the John Smoltz stick, the Atlanta Braves are looking to make a splash and add to their weak rotation.

Derek Lowe and the Braves brass met at Turner Field down in Hot-lanta in an effort to woo the free agent sinkerballer.

Here's the report from the AJC:

“We had a nice talk, went pretty good,” [Bobby] Cox said. “Derek’s in great shape, ready to go. Who knows? Hopefully we can get close with him.”
---
Cox has known Lowe since managing an all-star team that toured Japan eight years ago. Lowe was on it, and Cox left quite an impression with him. Boras said Sunday that the pitcher had great respect for the manager and was sincere in his interest in the Braves.

On Wednesday [Frank] Wren arranged the meeting with Lowe, a Florida resident, and Cox. Hours later, Wren was notified that Smoltz would sign with the Red Sox. Chipper Jones called Lowe on Wednesday to make a recruiting pitch, shortly before Smoltz called Jones to tell him he was leaving the Braves.

Great, so now if the Mets lose out on Lowe, they'll likely be forced to face him at least five times a year. Figures that would happen...

The Mets need to make a move, and quick. No more waiting around for something to happen. Blitzkrieg Boras and Lowe with another $2 million per and a fourth year. Let's get this over with, Omar Minaya & Co. There are still more holes to fill.

The State of the Mets -- 1/8/09

Introducing The State of the Mets!

This will be a sporadic video blog featuring me (and occasionally a few other people) talking about all things Mets. Today's episode features talk of Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Tim Redding, Randy Wolf, Luis Castillo and the utility role.

Enjoy.

Ed. note -- This was recorded early this morning, before the Braves came out as a strong suitor for Lowe.

Oh, and possibly the greatest screen grab ever right before you click play.

They ate at Citi

Well, I was wrong.

Here I proposed coffee and biscotti, maybe a nice sandwich or even a pricey sit down feast. Steve Popper reports things went a little different.

The Mets - GM Omar Minaya, C.O.O. Jeff Wilpon and assistant GM John Ricco - met with Boras and his assistant, Mike Fiore at Citi Field. They brought the power agent and his assistant on a tour of the new stadium and hosted a lunch for them at the stadium.

According to Popper, the chit-chat focused on Derek Lowe. The Mets are standing pat with their offer, as expected (for now).

Mets and Boras to do lunch

Scott Boras is in town for this. The Mets convinced him to stick around another day with the offer to buy him lunch. Apparently it worked, and the two sides will sit and chat about Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez -- both Boras clients.

As stated before, the Mets have already pitched digits to Tim Redding and will soon be dealing with Randy Wolf. Both of those players are for the back of the rotation, while Boras' clients could fit anywhere from the No. 2 spot back to No. 4.

I wonder where they will go to lunch...Coffee and a snack at Starbucks is too cheap. Maybe a stop at Pret A Manger? What about Tavern on the Green? It will probably one of these places, knowing Boras' taste for the extravagant (at least when dealing with contracts).

Five bucks says the Mets sign Alex Cora out of all this, another Boras client.

Offer already out to Tim Redding, Randy Wolf soon

The Mets will meet with Scott Boras to discuss top-tier starters Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez tomorrow. In the meantime, the team will try and sure up the back end of the rotation.

According to sources with the team, the Mets have already offered a contract to Tim Redding and will soon make one to Randy Wolf.

It's about time. The Metties need pitching and they seemed to be going down the list one at a time. Thankfully, they've trashed that idea and will try and sign the available pitchers as soon as possible.

No need waiting around for one to slip by. It seems the Mets are listing their free agent pursuits in this order:
1. Derek Lowe
2. Oliver Perez
3. Randy Wolf
4. Tim Redding
5. Pedro Martinez
6. Jon Garland (if at all)

I think the Mets should sign both Wolf and Redding and one of Lowe or Perez. If they can somehow swing Lowe and Perez and Wolf or Redding, that would be amazing -- but I just can't see it happening.

Pick three from that list, and who would you want?

Mets will not go higher on Lowe

The Mets have pitched a three-year, $36 million offer to Derek Lowe. He seems to have brushed it aside in hopes of finding a bigger and better deal. No other team has come forward with an offer, and the Mets are adamant they will not raise their offer to the free agent pitcher.

Via Ken Davidoff:

Lowe ranks as the Mets' first choice to replace Oliver Perez in their starting rotation, but they also are negotiating with Perez himself and lefthander Randy Wolf. Agent Scott Boras represents both Lowe and Perez.

The Mets should wait this out and see if he folds and takes the deal. I can see them offering a few million more, but not much. I can't see them giving him four guaranteed years, though.

Lowe wants $16 million per year, and with this deal he's only getting $12 million. With Scott Boras as his agent, you would think he would get what he wants (and more), but with the economy the way it is and many teams already locking up their needs, Lowe may have to "settle" for the Mets offer.

Sorting through Jon Heyman's top 20 remaining free agents

Jon Heyman published an article a few days ago, and I'm only now getting around to it. This break from school is really letting the laziness take over. Anyway, here we go...

Heyman ranks the top 20 remaining FA's, according to him. Somehow, his No. 1 choice is Bobby Abreu and No. 3 is Pat Burrell.

Adam Dunn ranks in at No. 6, just ahead of Jon Garland and, inexplicably, four spots ahead of Derek Lowe. Oliver Perez ranks in at No. 11 and Manny Ramirez doesn't make an appearance until 13th.

Behind Manny? Ben Sheets at No. 14, followed by Jason Varitek, Randy Wolf and Garret Anderson. No. 18 is Freddy Garcia, who last I checked is still recovering from surgery, pitched in three games last season and may have just hurt himself in winter ball.

Cliff Floyd and Tim Redding round out the list.

Is it me, or did Heyman just throw darts at a list while drunk, blindfolded and hanging upside down?

I'm going to take the same 20 players and rank them, my way, and we all can compare.

Heyman's list	Vazzano's list
1. Bobby Abreu	1. Manny Ramirez
2. Milton Bradley	2. Derek Lowe
3. Pat Burrell	3. Oliver Perez
4. Orlando Cabrera	4. Adam Dunn
5. Joe Crede	5. Orlando Cabrera
6. Adam Dunn	6. Bobby Abreu
7. Jon Garland	7. Ben Sheets
8. Jason Giambi*	8. Jason Giambi*
9. Orlando Hudson*	9. Orlando Hudson*
10. Derek Lowe	10. Joe Crede
11.Oliver Perez	11. Milton Bradley
12. Andy Pettitte*	12. Andy Pettitte*
13. Manny Ramirez	13. Jon Garland
14. Ben Sheets	14. Garrett Anderson
15. Jason Varitek	15. Pat Burrell
16. Randy Wolf	16. Randy Wolf
17. Garrett Anderson	17. Jason Varitek
18. Freddy Garcia	18. Tim Redding
19. Cliff Floyd	19. Cliff Floyd
20. Tim Redding	20. Freddy Garcia

* denotes matches.

Of this list, the Mets have been rumored to be interested in: Ramirez, Lowe, Perez, Hudson, Wolf, Varitek and Redding.
Of that list, I think the only serious pursuits will be: Lowe, Perez, Hudson, Wolf and Redding.
And of that list, I can see only: Lowe, Perez, Wolf and Redding wearing blue and orange next year.

Wherever you rank the top 20 remaining free agents, just know that within the next 40 or so days, a lot of rumors are going to be swirling. Why 40 days (give or take)? Spring training kicks off right about then. Finally, we'll all get back to baseball.

Update: Fletcher points out that Heyman's list may not be a list at all. From 1-17, the list is in alphabetical order. If he's not ranking them, why use numbers? Couldn't he just as easily used bullet points? What's with the ABC order then? This gives me more questions than answers. My list still stands.

Beltran for Dice-K and Ellsbury?

From Joel Sherman's Hardball Blog:

Let me ask Met fans, Red Sox fans and anybody else interested if you would be willing to do this trade: [Carlos] Beltran to Boston for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jacoby Ellsbury?

In a word: No.

Beltran's 2008: .284/.376/.500, 40 2B, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB. Played in 161 games.
Ellsbury's 2008: .280/.296/.394, 22 2B, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 50 SB. Played in 145 games.

Yes, Ellsbury is a great fielder and sometimes Beltran makes a silly mistake in the field, but there is no comparing the two. Three straight Gold Gloves for Beltran is enough information here.

Ellsbury is six years younger and much cheaper, which is enticing, but there is just no replacing Beltran in the field. Easily one of the most embattled players on the team, with some fans loving every second of him and others thinking he is overpaid. You likely know where I lie.

Dice-K would be nice, no doubt. He'd fit in right behind Johan Santana and be an excellent #2 pitcher. But with the staff they have right now, I don't think the Mets need to give up a guy as valuable as Beltran to land a #2 pitcher. Rather, they need to focus on getting a solid 3/4 guy in the rotation. Mike Pelfrey will have a decent year, but won't match 2008. Hopefully, John Maine can come back and pitch effectively.

The team knows they need to spend here, and they've already made the intial offer to Derek Lowe. It came out to be a little low, but the market seems thin for him, so the Mets might catch a break here and get him for near what they want to pay. That's their best option right now, with Oliver Perez filing in behind him.

I still don't know where the Jon Garland talk is. He's a solid back-end of the rotation guy, and has proven himself and his nearly automatic 4.75 ERA (fixed) for years. Sign him for the 4th or 5th guy and move from there. It would put pressure on the rest of the pitching market to look to the Mets if they seriously consider them suitors.

But back to the trade, I'll pass.

Lowe-balled

The Mets pitched a three-year, $36 million offer to Derek Lowe on Tuesday. According to sources, Lowe will continue shopping for a deal elsewhere.

From the Extra Bases blog:

Part of the reason the Mets may have entered the bidding with a relatively conservative offer is because they believe Lowe has no other suitors in the Northeast, where the pitcher has expressed a desire to pitch. The Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies had only preliminary conversations with Lowe and none of those clubs is believed to be interested in the pitcher at this time.

The Mets will likely have to increase the offer by a couple million even to get Lowe to the table. He is said to be seeking a possible five-year, $90 million deal.

Jack Curry doesn't see the Mets going much higher than what they already offered, though:

But as much as the Mets like the veteran right-hander, they are not expected to radically improve their offer. Another million a year, for a total package of $39 million? Maybe. But there won’t be a fourth year added to the deal.

Maybe Lowe will strike out everywhere else and "settle" for the $36 million. With Scott Boras as his agent? Yeah, right.

Outfield assist to Ian from SOX & Dawgs.

Mets offer Lowe three-year deal

According to Jack Curry of the NY Times, the Mets have offered Derek Lowe a three-year deal worth around $36 million.

This backs up a story from Dec. 24, in which it was noted Lowe and the Mets were "close" on a three- or four-year deal.

This would be much lower than the deal Lowe is seeking, which Curry noted to be for "five-years, $90 million."

Lowe, 35, is coming off a 14-11 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Mets to make offers soon

With a lull in signings and tradings since the Winter Meetings, the Mets have been pretty mum about their next move. Not for much longer.

According to Marty Noble, the Mets may make offers to Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf this week.

The Mets believe Lowe and Perez, both represented by agent Scott Boras, are more in position to sign now that one of Boras' higher-profile clients, Mark Teixeira, has agreed to a deal with the Yankees. They still view Wolf as a fall back alternate to the other two. There has been no indication the Mets will pursue more than one starter or that they will pursue any reliever to any great extent, opting instead to allow the market to slow even more.

Noble goes on to note that Lowe is valued higher than Perez, mainly due to his consistency.

The "Sign Lowe" movement has been gaining voices the last few weeks among the fans, and I am part of that group. I'd like to see a multi-year deal sometime soon, but hopefully not for a ridiculous amount of money.

And ignoring the Lowe and Perez possibilities, I still feel the Mets should sign Wolf no matter what. They need a back end of the rotation guy in case Jon Niese can't handle the duties.

1. Sign Lowe...If not, 2. Sign Perez...3. Sign Wolf either way. The end.

Report: Mets, Lowe close on three- or four-year deal

According to Major League sources, the Mets and free agent pitcher Derek Lowe may be very close to coming to term to a contract. The deal is rumored to be either for four years or three with a vesting option.

Boy, that vesting option sure is getting a lot of use these days.

The money could reach around $14-16 million per year.

Doing a little computing, that comes to (on the Lowe-end (get it?)) three years, $42 million and could reach all the way up to four years and $64 million. I'm guessing it will fall somewhere in between.

First of all, I think this would be a good signing for the Mets. They need this kind of grit and hard-nosed attitude in the rotation, and Lowe would bring that to the team. Secondly, I don't think I'll ever tire of all the time I will be able to use "Lowe" in puns and headlines.

Outfield assist to Ian from SOX & Dawgs.

Mets not giving up on Lowe

As the team across town is celebrating their latest acquisition, the Mets are trying to fill a void of their own.

According to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, the Mets and Derek Lowe are "deep in negotiatons" [sic].

The Mets have consistently remarked that Lowe is "out of their price range" but most with a keen eye knew that was all just a ploy. The team has money to spend, and they need to land an above average starter to help even out the starting rotation -- Lowe would be that man.

If the Mets do sign Lowe, Oliver Perez is easily forgotten.

Mets eyeing Redding and Wolf as Plan B

I've suggested both the players over the last few days, and it seems the Mets agree. Randy Wolf and Tim Redding are both on the Mets radar, but rank in behind Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe on the team's wish list.

According to Marty Noble, Wolf is the better option, and he evens goes as far as to liken Redding to Jose Lima.

Inking Redding would more [sic] consistent with the Mets' signing of Jose Lima in 2006. Redding would serve as a No. 5 starter or in reserve. If he were to sign, the impressions Jon Niese would make in Spring Training -- not his ERA and record, but the Mets' sense of his readiness -- might determine Redding's immediate future.

Lima? Really? Redding isn't that bad.

But, this is exactly what I've wanted the Mets to do -- sign a #5-at-best, AAAA type starter to push Niese through spring training.

The Mets should just go ahead and sign Wolf now. I still fail to see why Jon Garland is not talked about as an option, though.

Noble also notes the Mets "anticipate a lull" in roster moves over the coming weeks, especially since three of their most wanted players are all represented by Scott Boras, who has bigger fish to fry right now.