Leave it to Graziano for the doom and gloom -- Too bad he's right

Dan Graziano has a very sobering article up. In it he details how "painfully slow" the off-season has gone for the Mets, and the outlook on 2009, as of now. Let's take a look at the more important pieces.

Earlier this off-season, the Mets had the opportunity to trade Aaron Heilman for a 30-year-old pitcher who's averaged 32 starts and 13 wins for the past five years while his teams won four division titles and a World Series. As part of the deal, the Chicago Cubs were willing to pay part of the pitcher's $9.875 million salary in 2009, the year before he became a free agent.

That pitcher in question was Jason Marquis. If this deal was straight up Marquis-for-Heilman, and the Mets didn't pull the trigger, than they're downright silly. Marquis would have been a nice back of the rotation pick up, and would have rid the team of Heilman, a win-win situation if I've ever seen one.

He then begins to break down the Mets rotation behind Johan Santana. All of which he labels as big question marks.

-John Maine. He's coming off of shoulder surgery, has never had any sustained health or success without Rick Peterson as his pitching coach and probably can't be counted on for anything reliable until we start seeing it.

-Mike Pelfrey. Big, strong kid who had a breakout year in 2008 and could be headed for big things. But his innings total jumped by 50 from 2007 to 2008, which makes him a potential breakdown candidate and, at the very least, a candidate to not be as good next year as he was last year.

-Jonathon Niese. Yes, it's true. The Mets have made an internal decision to bring Niese to camp as a projected member of their starting rotation. They believe he's got the talent to succeed in the majors right now. That belief is fortified by the success Pelfrey had last year, and their hope is that Niese can follow in his footsteps.

I do think Maine will bounce back. He's matured as a pitcher and should be able to hold his own. I've noted Pelfrey's coming troubles in the past, but hopefully he can pitch close to the level of last season.

Niese, I am worried about. I don't understand how the Mets think he will easily transition into the rotation. He's going to have growing pains, just like Pelfrey did. If they expect him to hold his own in this league, they're in trouble. They need to sign some low-risk / high-reward veteran to challenge him in spring training.

He then wonders why the Mets are holding back and fearing to spend to too much. He lays out the idea that with a blossoming TV network, brand new ballpark and $20 million a year from Citigroup, they still choose to not spend a lot of money.

I have to agree with him here, again. The Mets need to spend spend spend because they have so many holes to fill. I understand they don't want to be the ones to set the market standard, but there comes a time when you have to break the bank. This is one of those times. After two awful collapses of just missing the playoffs, they need to do something to make the fans trust them again. The new ballpark is nice, but if the teams stinks, it won't matter.

Graziano's theme is that the Mets are overvaluing their 2009 team.

You can't expect similar numbers out of Fernando Tatis, the second-half Carlos Delgado or even the first 120-AB's of Daniel Murphy's career. The core is nice, but they have two gaping holes in their rotation, with no solid outlook on who will fill those holes. They are so focused on picking the right closer, which won't matter if you don't pick the right rest of the bullpen to get the leads to that closer.

Omar Minaya has A LOT of work to do, and it should just be getting started. Hopefully Jeff Wilpon is ready to sign some checks.